Wyznaczanie ryzyka planowania trasy przejazdu z wykorzystaniem modelu probabilistycznego

Determination of risk planning a route with the use of a probability model

Abstract

This paper aims to familiarize readers with notions related to probabilistic methods used for planning routes in telematics systems. The classification task made use of the model based on probabilistic Bayes’ classifier and the probability density function.  The first part of the paper describes problems with planning routing in contemporary telematics systems. The second part covers a theoretical basis of classifiers based on hard mathematical methods. If such a model is to make sense, it should account for smaller kinds of risk related to a transport process. This paper presents a method of selecting the most optimal parameters in transport planning. Its author draws attention to the variable reduction method necessary for planning supported by a factor analysis of principal components together with Varimax rotation normalized with Kaiser’s method for quantitative features. The third part is devoted to the process of planning routes and the related risk.